Banking Transformation in the Era of Emerging Financial Technologies: A Qualitative Foresight Study of Banking Resource and Use Management

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a forward-looking model for explaining the management of banking resources and uses in Iran based on emerging financial technologies and to identify the causal, core, contextual, intervening, strategic, and consequential factors shaping this process. This applied study employed a qualitative grounded theory design. Participants consisted of academic experts in finance, accounting, and banking sciences as well as experienced banking managers selected through purposive-theoretical sampling. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews. Theoretical saturation was reached at the thirteenth interview, while interviewing continued to 18 participants to ensure data adequacy. Data were analyzed through constant comparison and the three stages of open, axial, and selective coding, and the resulting categories were subsequently integrated into a grounded-theory paradigmatic model. The analysis indicated that the future of banking resource and use management is shaped by the systemic interaction of six major domains. Causal conditions emphasized cost and investment management, regulatory compliance, market and customer-behavior analysis, and improved innovation and efficiency. Technology and innovation, together with management and adaptation, constituted the core transformational phenomenon. Changes in financing patterns, digital transformation, evolving customer expectations, and sustainability requirements formed the contextual conditions, whereas macroeconomic circumstances, technological infrastructure limitations, cybersecurity threats, and cultural, social, and legal factors operated as intervening conditions. Effective responses involved technological and innovation strategies, risk and information-security management, human-resource and customer-experience development, sustainable investment, and institutional collaboration. Collectively, these strategies were inferred to enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, strengthen customer experience and trust, and expand markets and revenue-generating opportunities. Successful transformation of banking resource and use management requires more than the adoption of emerging financial technologies; it requires an integrated, systemic, and future-oriented approach that simultaneously addresses technological, managerial, economic, regulatory, human, and security dimensions. The proposed model can support strategic decision-making, digital-transformation policies, risk management, and the prioritization of technology-related investments within the banking system.